Arctic Food Chain and Climate Change Models

Conclusion

Our initial hypothesis was that the populations would be interdependent and would form multiple sinusoidal graphs that affected each other. In reality, our final Vensim model had a little bit of sinusoidal characteristics, but it didn't have as many ups and downs as we expected. We also hypothesized that the ice melt would eventually cause the food chain to decline, at least for the populations of selas and polar bears. In this case, we were right, which you can see in our agent model.

The differences between our Vensim and AgentCubes models was that the Vensim model showed more of the quantitative factors and numbers that went into determining each population. Meanwhile, the agent model gave more of a visual of the actual ecosystem and focused more on the behavior of the agents themselves. They both have pros and cons, but together they are able to give us a better understanding of our scenario.

Through this project, we learned more about the struggles of real-world modeling, such as doing our own research and trying to find accurate numbers to use for our populations. We had to be more independent and try to figure things out for ourselves. The project also gave us a chance to practice what we've learned and apply it.