System Model Story:
The probability of being infected by the common cold disease is determined by the age. The younger the age is, the person is more likely going to be infected. The older the age is, the person is less likely to be infected. However, depending on the distance between a healthy and infected person as well as the humidity level can change that case. The lower the humidity, the more likely the healthy person is to be infected. This particular story will be set in the common cold season, which are winter months. The winter has lower humidity levels, so the person is more likely going to be contaminated.
Agent Model Story:
The world will have a certain amount of particles. This model will only use the numbers from the United States of America. There are around 24 million U.S. citizens under the age of 6. Since there are around 331 million U.S. citizens, then around 307 million citizens are over the age of 6. This gave me around 5 particles over the age of 6 and 4 particles under the age of 6. The particle will be color coded. There will be one red particle named “Sick” and if it is near a healthy particle, then the particle will be infected and turn into purple. If it’s over 6 years old, the particles will have a green color and a less of a chance to be infected. The ones that are under six years old will be orange and will have a more of a chance to be infected. Each healthy particle is worth over 60 million U.S. citizens. The particles will be differentiated by colors: Green and orange for healthy, red for initially sick, and purple for infected. The reason why this is all color coded is for others to clearly see how they can affect one another.
Answers to Some Questions:
Some of the questions that helped me plan out my models were: What are the different factors that depend on how many people are able to be infected by the Common Cold? and If age and humidity levels are your main factors, then how will you choose to model that?
My hypothesis for the agent model was: If the amount of people getting infected are altered by the age, then those who are 6 or younger will be more likely to be infected. For my system model, it was: If the amount of people getting infected is affected by the humidity levels and age, then the lower the humidity levels are, the more likely the kids under the age of 6 are going to get it.
The results and behaviors that came out of both models were definitely supporting my hypothesis. Some behaviors of the models were complex. I think the results are my finished products!
My observations did meet my expectations. I was proud of what I was able to learn and that was the main purpose, while doing these models.
The results did support my hypothesis!
Some changes I had to make to my plan were trying to set an imaginary number within the particle and fixing my story for the system model. I had to make a lot of changes in order to fit how much I could do with my abilities.
I learned that in order to do models is to set a realistic plan to fit your time and skill abilities. I learned a lot about models, in general.
Sources:
Koren, Marina. “Five Surprising Facts About the Common Cold.” Smithsonian.com, Smithsonian Institution, 15 Apr. 2013, www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/five-surprising-facts-about-the-common-cold-23293218/.
Team, the Healthline Editorial. “Common Cold Risk Factors.” Healthline, Healthline Media, 25 Apr. 1985, www.healthline.com/health/common-cold-risk-factors#seasons.
“Common Cold.” Mayo Clinic, Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research, 20 Apr. 2019, www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/common-cold/symptoms-causes/syc-20351605.
“Common Cold.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 27 June 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold.
“Common Cold.” WebMD, WebMD, 5 Feb. 2020, www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/common_cold_overview.
“Also of Interest.” NCCP, 13 Jan. 2015, www.nccp.org/publications/pub_1097.html#:~:text=There%20are%20nearly%2024%20million,years%20in%20the%20United%20States.
“Low Humidity and Its Effects on Airborne Infection.” Dry Air and Airborne Infection, www.condairgroup.com/humidity-health-wellbeing/dry-air-and-airborne-infection#:~:text=A%20humidity%20above%2040%25RH,airborne%20and%20infectious%20for%20hours.