Model Output Statistics (MOS) Regression Calculator

Introduction : This calculator demonstrates an example of Model Output Statistics. In this calculator, you have three input values, or predictors:

  1. Tsurf: the observed surface temperature in degrees (C, F, or K)
  2. Td: the value of the dewpoint (in degrees C, F, or K) as forecasted by the particular model
  3. dZ: the model forecasted value of the thickness of the atmosphere between 1000 and 850 mb (100-85 kPa), in units of meters

Once entered, the calculator then performs a "best-fit" statistical regression to predict the minimum temperature (Tmin) for that day. In this case, the calculator computes Tmin using this formula:

Tmin = -295 + 0.4Tsurf + 0.4dZ + 0.6Td

The parameters found in this particular equation are generated through a statistical analysis of data over many years. One of the criticisms of this method is that once the parameters are determined, they are "fixed" for all future calculations, and are not subject to refinement.
NOTE: this calculator does not convert units of temperature. All temperature units must agree (C, F, or K).

Input Values:

Surface temperature (degrees)
Model Forecast dewpoint temperature (degrees)
Model forecast 100-85 kPa thickness (meters)

Result:

Minimum temperature (degrees)

Conclusions :

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