CASE STUDY: Chinese Population Model

Environmental Science Main Page

Case Studies Index

Source:

Harte, J., 1985, Consider a spherical cow, William Kaufmann, Inc., Los Altos, California, pp. 216-223.

Background:

In 1980, the Chinese population was about 109. Shortly thereafter, China set froth a goal of reducing its population to 7 x 108. To accomplish this, China is strongly encouraging one-child families.

Modeling Task:

How long will it take China to achieve this goal under the following assumptions:

  1. Sex-specific differences in the death rates and age distribution of the population can be ignored.
  2. The age-specific death rates do not change.
  3. A one-child-per-family policy begins at the start of 1980. In each decade from 1980 onward, until the population reaches 7 x 108, half the woman who were in the age group 10-19 at the start of the decade, and half who were in the age group 20-29, have a child.
  4. At the start of 1980, the age distribution and age-specific death rates (deaths per year per thousand of the population of specified age) are:

    Developed by
    Graphic of Shodor LogoThe Shodor Education Foundation, Inc.
    Copyright © 2000
    Questions or comments about this page should be directed to gotwals@shodor.org
    Age Group Number (x 106) Age-Specific Death Rate
    0-9 2357.90
    10-19 2240.98
    20-29 1821.60
    30-39 1242.50
    40-49 954.80
    50-59 6911.00
    60-69 4227.00
    70-79 2463.00
    >80 6145.00