West Nile Virus

Extensions

In theory, the mosquito population and weather models should be more realistic. How would you improve them?

How would you model infection routes other than mosquitoes biting birds? For example, what if mosquitoes can infect their eggs with the virus? What if birds can get it form eating other birds that died from the disease?

What if the birds that survive are more likely to die in a drought? That is, if recovered birds die, how does the chance that a mosquito bites an infected bird change?

How would you test whether the new models were more accurate?

What are the multi-year effects? For example, the second year many more birds will be immune. A few years with good weather might mean that few birds were infected so fewer are immune; an El Nino weather cycles could increase West Nile Virus.

If the season when mosquitoes are active is longer, how does the model need to change?

One of the main ways to control diseases carried by mosquitoes is to reduce the number of places mosquitoes can lay their eggs. That is, people need to clean out their birdbaths more often, empty saucers under flower pots, and pick up trash. Can you model the effectiveness of these activities?

One of the reasons to make models is to help decide which experiments to do first. For example, should we get better data on how long different kinds of birds stay sick or on how likely a bird is to get sick from one mosquito bite? If small changes in one assumption make a big change in the outcomes, we want to know more about that assumption.


Words to Know

Cold front
A mass of cold air moving into a warmer area.
Host
An organism in which another lives for nourishment or protection.
Immune, immunity
Unable to contract a disease, protected from sickness by vaccination or previous exposure.
Incubating, incubation
The number of viruses is growing in an infected organism, but there are not enough viruses to be infect another animal.
Infected
People or animals that have the disease and can spread it to others.
Model
A mathematical representation of a process that is simulated by a computer.
Policy, policies
A plan or course of action adopted by a government or organization.
Recovered
People or animals that had the disease and got better
Susceptible
People or animals that haven't had the disease so they can get it
Vector
An organism that carries a disease from one person or animal to another.
Virulence, virulent
How easily a virus infects a person or animal
Virus
Very tiny infectious agents.